Seasonality
2-Year T-Note
ZT=F · daily history 2000-06-02 → 2026-07-09
July avg return (15y)
-0.1%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
40.0%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
0.2%
March
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.03% | 46.7% | 15 |
| February | -0.12% | 33.3% | 15 |
| March | 0.15% | 60.0% | 15 |
| April | -0.14% | 46.7% | 15 |
| May | 0.03% | 66.7% | 15 |
| June | -0.01% | 33.3% | 15 |
| July | -0.05% | 40.0% | 15 |
| August | 0.06% | 46.7% | 15 |
| September | -0.07% | 40.0% | 15 |
| October | -0.23% | 20.0% | 15 |
| November | 0.01% | 60.0% | 15 |
| December | 0.08% | 60.0% | 15 |