Seasonality
How each market has tended to move through the calendar — the average cumulative return path over the year, and each month's average return and positive-close probability.
Average is August's mean month-over-month return over the labelled trailing window of complete calendar years. Blue is positive, amber negative. Markets are grouped by asset class; a shorter price history is flagged, not hidden.
Indices4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini Nasdaq-100 | 0.85% | -0.15% | 1.68% | 0.94% | 0.23% | 60.0% | 56.0% |
| E-mini S&P 500 | 1.91% | 0.21% | 0.92% | -0.01% | -0.08% | 53.3% | 60.0% |
| E-mini Dow | 3.20% | -0.05% | 0.79% | -0.24% | -0.22% | 53.3% | 56.0% |
| E-mini Russell 2000 | 7.00% | 0.03% | 0.50% | -0.36% | -0.14% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
Metals5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | 9.98% | -1.95% | 0.83% | 2.56% | 1.17% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| Gold | 5.48% | 0.78% | 0.96% | 2.44% | 2.02% | 73.3% | 72.0% |
| Platinum | 6.16% | -1.37% | -0.68% | 0.83% | 0.78% | 60.0% | 54.5% |
| Palladium | -7.60% | -3.58% | -0.81% | -0.29% | -1.10% | 46.7% | 43.5% |
| Copper | 4.34% | -1.22% | -1.06% | -1.11% | -1.12% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
Energy4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | -3.51% | 5.76% | 9.13% | 5.67% | 0.23% | 73.3% | 56.0% |
| Heating Oil | -5.53% | -1.57% | 0.60% | 1.65% | 2.23% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -7.58% | -5.50% | -2.45% | -1.17% | -0.79% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline | -1.26% | -9.30% | -2.12% | -2.04% | -0.19% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
Grains6 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Oil | -7.39% | -2.33% | 0.39% | 0.18% | -0.09% | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| Corn | 1.02% | -0.36% | -2.53% | -0.94% | -0.26% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Soybean Meal | 8.33% | -4.00% | -4.71% | -1.86% | -1.15% | 40.0% | 36.0% |
| Wheat (HRW, KC) | -6.37% | -1.18% | -3.94% | -2.25% | -0.44% | 40.0% | 48.0% |
| Soybeans | 7.80% | -3.75% | -3.43% | -2.71% | -2.28% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
| Wheat (SRW, Chicago) | -1.00% | -2.66% | -4.96% | -2.91% | -1.13% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Softs4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa | -10.24% | 4.68% | 3.45% | 3.48% | 2.18% | 66.7% | 56.0% |
| Coffee C | 34.16% | 10.60% | 3.72% | 2.89% | 1.86% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
| Cotton No. 2 | -0.61% | 4.88% | 0.18% | 1.34% | 0.76% | 60.0% | 48.0% |
| Sugar No. 11 | 0.12% | 3.83% | 1.29% | -0.92% | -1.21% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
Livestock3 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Cattle | 6.20% | 1.53% | -0.10% | -0.04% | 0.50% | 40.0% | 43.5% |
| Feeder Cattle | 10.08% | 2.04% | -0.12% | -0.21% | 0.15% | 53.3% | 58.3% |
| Lean Hogs | -11.30% | -16.69% | -15.02% | -15.17% | -13.80% | 6.7% | 8.0% |
Forex7 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FX | 2.37% | 0.19% | 0.07% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 46.7% | 52.0% |
| Japanese Yen | 2.54% | -0.15% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.68% | 46.7% | 60.0% |
| US Dollar Index | -2.26% | 0.06% | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 60.0% | 52.0% |
| Swiss Franc | 1.18% | -0.23% | 0.06% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.85% | -0.56% | -0.24% | -0.39% | -0.17% | 33.3% | 44.0% |
| British Pound | 2.22% | -0.53% | -0.48% | -0.44% | -0.68% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
| Australian Dollar | 1.79% | -0.15% | -0.42% | -0.71% | -0.69% | 26.7% | 36.0% |
Bonds5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra T-Bond | -0.43% | -1.41% | 0.28% | 0.99% | 1.42% | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| T-Bond | 0.41% | -1.10% | 0.14% | 0.72% | 1.58% | 53.3% | 72.0% |
| 10-Year T-Note | 1.25% | -0.44% | 0.12% | 0.36% | 0.88% | 60.0% | 76.0% |
| 5-Year T-Note | 1.04% | -0.25% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.52% | 53.3% | 72.0% |
| 2-Year T-Note | 0.48% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 46.7% | 64.0% |
Crypto2 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -6.50% | -5.46% | 1.75% | -0.15% | -0.15% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Ether8y · low sample | 18.75% | 2.60% | -2.13% | -2.13% | -2.13% | 37.5% | 37.5% |