Seasonality
How each market has tended to move through the calendar — the average cumulative return path over the year, and each month's average return and positive-close probability.
Average is October's mean month-over-month return over the labelled trailing window of complete calendar years. Blue is positive, amber negative. Markets are grouped by asset class; a shorter price history is flagged, not hidden.
Indices4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini Dow | 2.51% | 3.92% | 1.38% | 2.27% | 1.76% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| E-mini Nasdaq-100 | 4.77% | 2.74% | 0.91% | 2.19% | 3.19% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| E-mini S&P 500 | 2.27% | 2.80% | 0.66% | 2.03% | 1.42% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| E-mini Russell 2000 | 1.76% | 1.71% | -0.18% | 1.70% | 1.05% | 66.7% | 68.0% |
Metals5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | 3.76% | 4.17% | 1.86% | 1.94% | 1.00% | 73.3% | 64.0% |
| Platinum | -0.93% | 3.54% | 1.47% | 1.42% | 0.22% | 66.7% | 64.0% |
| Copper | 5.42% | 1.05% | 0.92% | 1.18% | 0.08% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
| Gold | 3.18% | 2.62% | 1.28% | 1.00% | 0.26% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| Palladium | 14.34% | 0.61% | -0.54% | 0.23% | 1.00% | 60.0% | 58.3% |
Energy4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | 24.86% | 5.19% | 8.05% | 5.70% | 8.20% | 60.0% | 68.0% |
| Heating Oil | 4.23% | 5.66% | 1.93% | 1.27% | -0.86% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| WTI Crude Oil | -2.23% | 1.77% | -1.04% | -0.89% | -2.08% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 1.02% | 3.43% | -0.14% | -2.21% | -3.94% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
Grains6 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Meal | 21.04% | 6.16% | 5.17% | 5.29% | 5.44% | 73.3% | 72.0% |
| Corn | 3.85% | 1.78% | 1.92% | 2.76% | 2.80% | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Soybean Oil | -0.39% | 1.82% | 2.61% | 2.52% | 2.70% | 73.3% | 72.0% |
| Soybeans | 9.78% | 1.03% | 1.44% | 1.80% | 2.47% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| Wheat (SRW, Chicago) | 5.12% | 1.56% | 0.92% | 1.32% | 0.57% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| Wheat (HRW, KC) | 5.37% | 0.76% | 0.15% | 0.46% | -0.05% | 46.7% | 52.0% |
Softs4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar No. 11 | -10.37% | -2.44% | 3.35% | 3.90% | 3.36% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| Cotton No. 2 | 3.51% | -4.93% | -1.00% | -0.33% | 0.65% | 66.7% | 64.0% |
| Coffee C | 4.59% | -0.92% | 0.63% | -1.05% | -0.73% | 40.0% | 44.0% |
| Cocoa | -8.86% | -1.42% | -0.85% | -1.08% | -2.70% | 40.0% | 36.0% |
Livestock3 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Cattle | 2.05% | 2.98% | 3.61% | 4.04% | 2.98% | 80.0% | 69.6% |
| Feeder Cattle | -6.14% | -1.19% | -0.55% | 0.21% | -0.38% | 53.3% | 45.8% |
| Lean Hogs | -18.60% | -9.81% | -4.36% | -5.97% | -5.56% | 26.7% | 28.0% |
Forex7 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 2.08% | 1.01% | 0.99% | 0.57% | 0.41% | 60.0% | 48.0% |
| Australian Dollar | -1.11% | -0.75% | -0.88% | 0.36% | 0.55% | 46.7% | 60.0% |
| British Pound | -2.30% | -0.44% | -0.52% | -0.13% | -0.01% | 40.0% | 52.0% |
| Canadian Dollar | -0.67% | -0.39% | -0.90% | -0.33% | -0.26% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Euro FX | -1.84% | -0.71% | -0.85% | -0.38% | -0.40% | 40.0% | 48.0% |
| Swiss Franc | -1.44% | -0.68% | -1.07% | -0.58% | -0.38% | 40.0% | 44.0% |
| Japanese Yen | -4.03% | -3.17% | -1.90% | -1.71% | -0.70% | 20.0% | 32.0% |
Bonds5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year T-Note | 0.14% | -0.48% | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.14% | 20.0% | 36.0% |
| 5-Year T-Note | 0.04% | -1.15% | -0.72% | -0.61% | -0.37% | 26.7% | 40.0% |
| 10-Year T-Note | 0.15% | -1.39% | -0.96% | -0.63% | -0.41% | 20.0% | 36.0% |
| T-Bond | 0.62% | -2.37% | -1.97% | -1.30% | -1.07% | 26.7% | 32.0% |
| Ultra T-Bond | 1.02% | -2.76% | -2.58% | -1.73% | -1.91% | 26.7% | 25.0% |
Crypto2 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | -3.95% | 16.20% | 17.91% | 19.29% | 19.29% | 81.8% | 81.8% |
| Ether8y · low sample | -7.21% | 11.88% | 6.73% | 6.73% | 6.73% | 62.5% | 62.5% |