Seasonality
How each market has tended to move through the calendar — the average cumulative return path over the year, and each month's average return and positive-close probability.
Average is July's mean month-over-month return over the labelled trailing window of complete calendar years. Blue is positive, amber negative. Markets are grouped by asset class; a shorter price history is flagged, not hidden.
Indices4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini Nasdaq-100 | 2.38% | 3.98% | 4.35% | 3.86% | 2.38% | 93.3% | 76.0% |
| E-mini S&P 500 | 2.17% | 3.56% | 3.37% | 2.55% | 1.67% | 86.7% | 72.0% |
| E-mini Dow | 0.08% | 3.16% | 2.92% | 2.06% | 1.75% | 86.7% | 80.0% |
| E-mini Russell 2000 | 1.68% | 4.91% | 3.61% | 2.04% | 1.01% | 66.7% | 60.0% |
Metals5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | 1.95% | 1.26% | 5.06% | 3.97% | 3.63% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| Palladium | 8.53% | 2.85% | 4.46% | 3.95% | 3.82% | 66.7% | 73.9% |
| Gold | -0.04% | 1.37% | 1.97% | 1.74% | 0.98% | 66.7% | 56.0% |
| Platinum | -3.57% | -0.85% | 2.16% | 1.32% | -0.24% | 46.7% | 45.8% |
| Copper | -13.91% | -2.32% | -0.43% | -0.53% | 1.48% | 53.3% | 60.0% |
Energy4 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heating Oil | 2.29% | 3.35% | 1.50% | 0.85% | 1.08% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 6.53% | 3.37% | 1.20% | 0.82% | 1.33% | 46.7% | 56.0% |
| Natural Gas (Henry Hub) | -10.13% | 4.25% | 0.63% | -0.44% | -0.53% | 26.7% | 32.0% |
| WTI Crude Oil | 6.37% | 2.32% | 0.21% | -0.85% | 0.74% | 60.0% | 68.0% |
Forex7 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japanese Yen | -4.32% | 1.38% | 1.05% | 1.04% | 0.59% | 66.7% | 52.0% |
| Swiss Franc | -2.74% | 0.70% | 0.47% | 0.30% | 0.24% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| British Pound | -3.64% | -0.04% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.42% | 53.3% | 60.0% |
| Australian Dollar | -2.25% | -0.83% | 0.38% | 0.11% | 0.37% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| Canadian Dollar | -1.58% | -0.40% | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
| US Dollar Index | 3.25% | 0.28% | -0.38% | -0.07% | -0.22% | 40.0% | 48.0% |
| Euro FX | -2.95% | -0.70% | 0.36% | -0.11% | 0.18% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
Bonds5 assets
| Asset | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra T-Bond | -1.52% | 0.75% | 0.79% | 1.19% | 1.09% | 60.0% | 56.2% |
| T-Bond | -1.11% | 1.08% | 0.68% | 1.02% | 0.64% | 60.0% | 64.0% |
| 10-Year T-Note | -0.95% | 0.72% | 0.35% | 0.51% | 0.52% | 60.0% | 68.0% |
| 5-Year T-Note | -0.63% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.16% | 40.0% | 52.0% |
| 2-Year T-Note | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 40.0% | 40.0% |