Seasonality
RBOB Gasoline
RB=F · daily history 2000-11-01 → 2026-07-09
July avg return (15y)
0.8%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
46.7%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
8.2%
March
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.34% | 66.7% | 15 |
| February | 4.60% | 53.3% | 15 |
| March | 8.17% | 93.3% | 15 |
| April | 3.53% | 60.0% | 15 |
| May | 1.96% | 53.3% | 15 |
| June | 0.72% | 60.0% | 15 |
| July | 0.82% | 46.7% | 15 |
| August | -2.04% | 33.3% | 15 |
| September | -7.21% | 13.3% | 15 |
| October | -2.21% | 53.3% | 15 |
| November | -4.03% | 20.0% | 15 |
| December | 0.56% | 66.7% | 15 |