Seasonality
E-mini Nasdaq-100
^NDX · daily history 1985-10-01 → 2026-07-09
July avg return (15y)
3.9%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
93.3%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
3.9%
July
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2.36% | 73.3% | 15 |
| February | 1.11% | 53.3% | 15 |
| March | 0.79% | 60.0% | 15 |
| April | 1.08% | 66.7% | 15 |
| May | 2.15% | 66.7% | 15 |
| June | 1.74% | 60.0% | 15 |
| July | 3.86% | 93.3% | 15 |
| August | 0.94% | 60.0% | 15 |
| September | -1.24% | 40.0% | 15 |
| October | 2.19% | 60.0% | 15 |
| November | 2.97% | 80.0% | 15 |
| December | -0.23% | 53.3% | 15 |