Seasonality
Wheat (HRW, KC)
KE=F · daily history 2000-09-21 → 2026-07-31
July avg return (15y)
0.7%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
60.0%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
2.3%
September
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.32% | 53.3% | 15 |
| February | -0.55% | 26.7% | 15 |
| March | 1.33% | 46.7% | 15 |
| April | 0.70% | 46.7% | 15 |
| May | 1.43% | 60.0% | 15 |
| June | -3.71% | 33.3% | 15 |
| July | 0.67% | 60.0% | 15 |
| August | -2.25% | 40.0% | 15 |
| September | 2.27% | 73.3% | 15 |
| October | 0.46% | 46.7% | 15 |
| November | -1.80% | 33.3% | 15 |
| December | 1.80% | 53.3% | 15 |