Seasonality
Lean Hogs
HE=F · daily history 2000-12-15 → 2026-07-31
July avg return (15y)
-1.2%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
46.7%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
7.5%
April
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.18% | 66.7% | 15 |
| February | 6.21% | 60.0% | 15 |
| March | 1.23% | 33.3% | 15 |
| April | 7.46% | 86.7% | 15 |
| May | 5.03% | 73.3% | 15 |
| June | 1.84% | 66.7% | 15 |
| July | -1.15% | 46.7% | 15 |
| August | -15.17% | 6.7% | 15 |
| September | 4.64% | 73.3% | 15 |
| October | -5.97% | 26.7% | 15 |
| November | -0.69% | 33.3% | 15 |
| December | 5.04% | 66.7% | 15 |