Seasonality
Gold
GC=F · daily history 2000-08-30 → 2026-10-09
October avg return (15y)
1.0%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
October positive-close prob. (15y)
53.3%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
2.8%
January
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2.81% | 66.7% | 15 |
| February | 0.49% | 46.7% | 15 |
| March | 1.45% | 60.0% | 15 |
| April | 1.66% | 60.0% | 15 |
| May | -0.97% | 40.0% | 15 |
| June | -0.22% | 46.7% | 15 |
| July | 1.61% | 66.7% | 15 |
| August | 2.81% | 73.3% | 15 |
| September | -1.69% | 26.7% | 15 |
| October | 1.00% | 53.3% | 15 |
| November | -1.01% | 46.7% | 15 |
| December | 0.71% | 60.0% | 15 |