Seasonality
Ether
ETH-USD · daily history 2017-11-09 → 2026-08-01
August avg return (15y)
-2.1%
month-over-month, n = 8 years
August positive-close prob. (15y)
37.5%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
8
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
18.8%
April
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 18.73% | 62.5% | 8 |
| February | 7.25% | 75.0% | 8 |
| March | -4.68% | 62.5% | 8 |
| April | 18.84% | 62.5% | 8 |
| May | 12.19% | 50.0% | 8 |
| June | -10.41% | 25.0% | 8 |
| July | 16.39% | 50.0% | 8 |
| August | -2.13% | 37.5% | 8 |
| September | -7.28% | 37.5% | 8 |
| October | 6.73% | 62.5% | 8 |
| November | 3.47% | 50.0% | 8 |
| December | -0.63% | 37.5% | 8 |
Low-sample caution: only 8 complete years are available — fewer than 10. The averages and positive-close probabilities above rest on a short record and should be read with that limitation in mind. The data is shown in full rather than withheld; treat the figures as a thin base rate, not an established pattern.