Seasonality
E-mini S&P 500
^GSPC · daily history 1927-12-30 → 2026-07-09
July avg return (15y)
2.6%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
86.7%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
3.1%
November
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.28% | 60.0% | 15 |
| February | 0.85% | 60.0% | 15 |
| March | 0.49% | 60.0% | 15 |
| April | 1.10% | 73.3% | 15 |
| May | 0.81% | 80.0% | 15 |
| June | 1.26% | 73.3% | 15 |
| July | 2.55% | 86.7% | 15 |
| August | -0.01% | 53.3% | 15 |
| September | -1.29% | 46.7% | 15 |
| October | 2.03% | 60.0% | 15 |
| November | 3.11% | 86.7% | 15 |
| December | 0.15% | 60.0% | 15 |