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Seasonality

Cotton No. 2

CT=F · daily history 2000-01-032026-07-31

July avg return (15y)

-2.4%

month-over-month, n = 15 years

July positive-close prob. (15y)

46.7%

share of those years the month closed positive

Years in 15y sample

15

complete calendar years

Strongest month (15y)

3.4%

January

Window15 complete calendar years in sample

Seasonal path

Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.

Monthly averages

Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.

Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).

Monthly table

Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.

Monthn years
January3.42%66.7%15
February2.43%53.3%15
March0.21%53.3%15
April1.04%53.3%15
May-4.53%20.0%15
June-2.75%46.7%15
July-2.42%46.7%15
August1.34%60.0%15
September-2.54%40.0%15
October-0.33%66.7%15
November1.22%53.3%15
December1.63%66.7%15