Seasonality
WTI Crude Oil
CL=F · daily history 2000-08-23 → 2026-08-27
August avg return (15y)
-1.2%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
August positive-close prob. (15y)
46.7%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
3.4%
May
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1.70% | 53.3% | 15 |
| February | 2.08% | 66.7% | 15 |
| March | -1.47% | 53.3% | 15 |
| April | 2.84% | 60.0% | 15 |
| May | 3.39% | 46.7% | 15 |
| June | 2.76% | 60.0% | 15 |
| July | -0.85% | 60.0% | 15 |
| August | -1.17% | 46.7% | 15 |
| September | -1.45% | 33.3% | 15 |
| October | -0.89% | 46.7% | 15 |
| November | -2.91% | 40.0% | 15 |
| December | 0.62% | 53.3% | 15 |