Seasonality
Cocoa
CC=F · daily history 2000-01-03 → 2026-07-31
July avg return (15y)
-0.0%
month-over-month, n = 15 years
July positive-close prob. (15y)
60.0%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
15
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
5.4%
April
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 0.87% | 46.7% | 15 |
| February | 4.82% | 66.7% | 15 |
| March | 0.24% | 60.0% | 15 |
| April | 5.39% | 80.0% | 15 |
| May | -2.05% | 46.7% | 15 |
| June | -0.77% | 53.3% | 15 |
| July | -0.03% | 60.0% | 15 |
| August | 3.48% | 66.7% | 15 |
| September | -3.43% | 40.0% | 15 |
| October | -1.08% | 40.0% | 15 |
| November | 2.67% | 53.3% | 15 |
| December | 0.37% | 40.0% | 15 |