Seasonality
Bitcoin
BTC-USD · daily history 2014-09-17 → 2026-08-01
August avg return (15y)
-0.2%
month-over-month, n = 11 years
August positive-close prob. (15y)
27.3%
share of those years the month closed positive
Years in 15y sample
11
complete calendar years
Strongest month (15y)
19.3%
October
Seasonal path
Average cumulative return through the year (blue, 15-year window), each year indexed to its own first session, with 2026 so far overlaid in amber.
Monthly averages
Average month-over-month return by calendar month (positive blue, negative amber), with the positive-close probability labelled above each bar.
Bars: average month-over-month return (15-year window). Labels above each bar: positive-close probability (share of those years the month closed positive).
Monthly table
Every calendar month over the 15-year window. Sortable by average return or positive-close probability.
| Month | n years | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| January | -0.34% | 54.5% | 11 |
| February | 12.46% | 81.8% | 11 |
| March | 0.36% | 45.5% | 11 |
| April | 10.01% | 63.6% | 11 |
| May | 9.14% | 54.5% | 11 |
| June | 1.91% | 54.5% | 11 |
| July | 9.03% | 72.7% | 11 |
| August | -0.15% | 27.3% | 11 |
| September | -1.82% | 45.5% | 11 |
| October | 19.29% | 81.8% | 11 |
| November | 7.12% | 54.5% | 11 |
| December | 9.18% | 45.5% | 11 |